(Conclusion)MANILA, Philippines -- Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo has even more compelling reasons than Ferdinand Marcos to stay on after her term. First off, unlike Marcos who tried to find a law to do what he wanted and invented one when he couldn’t, Arroyo has never been bothered by the law. The idea that the legal force of term limits will deter her presumes that legal force is a force that she feels, or fears. That overlooks the astounding fact that she is the longest-serving President of this country after 1986 without ever having been elected president. Arroyo became President in 2001 by the grace of God and the people, and in 2004 by the gall of Garci and General Esperon. Now, will someone who has ruled for 10 years without the nicety of being elected give up rule just because of the nicety of being restricted from staying on? Or will someone whose time never began feel a need to leave just because her time is up? There’s a stick to go with the carrot. The fate that has befallen Joseph Estrada is the least of Arroyo’s incentives for not wanting to lose power. There are a number of humongous crimes she can be indicted for. At the lowest rung is turning this country into the most corrupt in Asia. Estrada has every reason to complain. He can always say: “Why am I in jail? I made us only second.” At the highest rung are the killings. The specter of the class suit by the torture victims against Marcos cannot be lost on Arroyo. And at that, legal prosecution may be the least of her worries: Blood debts have a way of being paid for by blood. No, it’s not just the whip of ambition that will flail at her to keep power, it’s the dogged figure of retribution on the rearview mirror, too. From hindsight, the notion that Marcos “wouldn’t dare” was really batty in that Marcos had in fact already dared again and again, long before he dared declare martial law. Not least, he had dared win a second term by mounting, as Jovito Salonga points out, the bloodiest election in Philippine history. From foresight, the notion that Arroyo “wouldn’t dare” is really batty in that Arroyo has in fact already dared again and again even before she dares take the final step. Not least she has dared prolong her term by helloing Election Commissioner Virgilio “Garci” Garcillano, a crime that will go down in history alongside the Plaza Miranda bombing in scale of atrocity. The actual massacre of the vote is not lighter than the attempted massacre of the opposition, it is heavier. Between the two, the Plaza Miranda bombing better qualifies a “lapse of judgment.” But how to keep power? Here’s the part, as I said, where my crystal ball gets fuzzy. I myself think she will try to do it through a Charter change, this time moving heaven and hell because its beneficiary would not be Jose de Venecia but her. This time I suspect all the legions of government, the generals striding at the forefront, will be employed to ram it through. That is what makes these elections a crucial one. The success of pushing Charter Change, or specifically a shift to a parliamentary system, rests on wresting control of Congress -- not just the House of Representatives but the Senate as well. I think this will be the preferred option simply because martial law is far riskier. Unlike Marcos, Arroyo does not control the military. Or her control of it is purely transactional, as against Marcos’ who added inspirational to the bargain: The generals were truly in awe of him and were loyal to him, such as people who crave power and wealth are capable of awe and loyalty. Arroyo’s generals by contrast are in awe only of this country’s heroes as printed on Central Bank mint paper. But if by chance, or by this country waking up, Charter change should be stopped the way it was stopped last year, then I think martial law, or its equivalent, will not be beyond the contemplation of the current occupant of Malacañang. One thing I am not fuzzy about. That is, whether the one or the other, whether we go in the direction of Charter change or (formal) martial law, we are going to see this country trampled by the hooves of iron-fisted rule over the next three years. Both projects require the extirpation of our freedoms along the way. It is happening even as we speak, the runaway killings blazing like a neon sign announcing it. We already have martial rule even without martial law. Arroyo “out-Marcoses” even Marcos in one respect. I recall that one of the things that sparked the First Quarter Storm of 1970 was Edgar Jopson, then a student, demanding from Marcos that he put in writing that he would leave Malacañang after his second term. Marcos, who was a stickler for law, refused angrily and called his meeting with the National Union of Students of the Philippines to an end. I suspect that if a group of protesters made that same demand on Arroyo today, she would simply say: “Put that down in writing? In triplicate if you want.” There is one final thing that should put the notion of “She wouldn’t dare!” to rest. That is the story of the scorpion and the frog. Everyone here, of course, knows the story, but it can do with some communal recollection and reflection. A scorpion, the story goes, wanted to cross a river to the other side but didn’t know how to swim. He spotted a frog along the bushes and pleaded with the frog to take him over on his back. The frog balked at the thought and said, “But you are a scorpion, you would sting me to death.” The scorpion replied: “Are you crazy? If I bite you then I will drown in the river.” Persuaded by that argument, the frog agreed. Midway in the river, the scorpion bit the frog. “Why the hell did you do that?” the frog expostulated as the venom took hold of him. “Now we’ll both die!” “I know,” the scorpion said as he sank into the water, “but, alas, I can’t help it. Alas, it’s in my nature to do so.” Well, alas, too, if it’s our nature to be frogs that never learn. More Inquirer columns Previous columns:
Calm before the storm– 5/16/07
"Hello pa rin Garci"– 5/14/07
Again, good and evil– 5/10/07
Footnote to a farce – 5/09/07
Shocking – 5/08/07
‘Bastusan na’ – 5/07/07
Love, hate – 5/03/07
Triumph of the spirit – 5/02/07 | 
