Bush defies diplomatic drumbeat on Iran, Syria Agence France-Presse
November 14, 2006
WASHINGTON -- No softening in policy and no talks: President George W. Bush's warning Monday on Iran and Syria defied a drumbeat of calls at home and abroad for the United States to engage its two foes.
From Britain to Australia and in the political echo chamber in Washington, the notion of diplomatic outreach to Damascus and Tehran is being mooted as part of a possible fresh strategy to end Iraq's torment.
But Bush Monday signaled his looming "lame duck" status, loss of allies in Congress and a foreign intervention would not force a climbdown.
Iran must halt its nuclear program and Syria must get its hands off Lebanon and stop shielding extremists before talks can begin, Bush said, as he met Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert.
The United States accuses Syria and Iran of fomenting instability in Iraq and allowing insurgents to cross their borders.
Renewed debate on Iran and Syria arose as the Congressionally-mandated Iraq Study Group, charged with coming up with a new approach in the violence-wracked country, met Bush Monday before drawing up recommendations.
Veteran co-chair James Baker has said Washington should not be afraid to talk to its enemies, prompting speculation the group will endorse contacts with Iran and Syria on ending Iraq violence.
Some observers say the group may suggest de-linking Iraq from Washington's nuclear showdown with Tehran. The State Department said Monday a previous effort to discuss Iraq with Iran through its ambassador in Baghdad "didn't work out."
The high price two twin foes might demand for help in Iraq is likely to seriously complicate any talks, but foreign policy analyst Jon Alterman said he expected a US-Iran dialogue within the next two years, despite current political posturing on both sides.
"Complete chaos in Iraq is not in Iran's interests, complete American success in Iraq is not in Iran's interest either, but we are much closer to the former than the later," said Alterman of the Center For Strategic and International Studies.
Some analysts believe Tehran might require an end to pressure on its nuclear drive, and Syria could ask for more of a free hand in Lebanon in return for helping in Iraq. Either demand might be a climbdown to far for Bush.
Top Democrats emboldened by last week's rout of Republicans in congressional elections, are among those recommending a new approach.
Future Senate Foreign Relations committee chairman Joseph Biden called Sunday for a conference of regional powers similar to the Dayton talks which brought peace to former Yugoslavia.
Some observers interpreted last week's appointment of Robert Gates as the US defense secretary as a sign of a possible softening of US tone on Iran and Syria, as he once advocated dialogue with Tehran.
Britain's Observer newspaper reported Sunday Prime Minister Tony Blair told Bush in a phone call it was important to involve Syria and Iran in the attempt to still spiraling violence in Iraq.
Earlier this month, Blair sent a senior official to Syria to assess its readiness to play a "constructive" role in the Middle East, sparking speculation over a possible new diplomatic opening.
But Blair toed the US line Monday, though he did say Iran should be given a "strategic choice : "they help the Middle East peace process not hinder it; they stop supporting terrorism in Lebanon or Iraq; they abide by, not flout, their international obligations.
"In that case, a new partnership is possible," he said.
Another Bush ally, Australian Prime Minister John Howard earlier appeared out of step, telling ABC radio the West should talk to Iran and Syria, though it would probably not make much difference.
Though Bush ruled out talks with Iran and Syria, the White House said Monday it did not want to prejudge recommendations of the Iraq Study Group expected to report within weeks.
It might be possible for any large-scale international conference on Iraq to include Washington and its foes but preclude any direct, one-on-one contacts.
The United States has, for instance, taken part in six-party nuclear talks also involving North Korea, despite its refusal to offer two-way talk.
Rand Beers, a former US security official in both Republican and Democrat administrations said he believed a regional framework was likely for addressing Iraq problem.
"I do think there is likely to be some kind of international conference as an effort to find a way to take the outside actors and make them part of the solution instead of being neutral or part of the problem," Beers said.
